Calibration

Reports on the calibration and validation of HDM.

2018 - UK - Calibration of HDM-4 Fuel Model
 33 Downloads
 527.83 KB
 24-07-2019

This paper presents an assessment of the accuracy of the HDM-4 fuel consumption model. The study focuses on HGVs and compares estimates made by HDM-4 to measurements from a large fleet of vehicles driving on motorways in England. The data was obtained from the telematic database of truck fleet managers (SAE J1939) and includes three types of HGVs: light, medium and heavy trucks. Some 19,991 records from 1645 trucks are available in total. These represent records of trucks driving at constant speed along part of the M1 and the M18, two motorways in England.

These conditions have been simulated in HDM-4 by computing fuel consumption for each truck type driving at a constant speed of 85 km/h on a flat and straight road segment in good condition.

Estimates are compared to real measurements under two separate sets of assumptions. First, the HDM-4 model calibrated for the UK has been used. Then, the model was updated to take into account vehicle weight and frontal area specific to the considered vehicles.

The paper shows that the current calibration of HDM-4 for the United Kingdom already requires recalibration. The quality of the model estimates can be improved significantly by updating vehicle weight and frontal area in HDM-4. The use of HGV fleet and network condition data as described in this paper provides an opportunity to verify HDM-4 continuously.

2018 - India - HDM4 Roughness and Rut Model Calibration
 78 Downloads
 328.47 KB
 23-12-2018

The Highway Development and Management model (HDM-4) is a tool developed by the World Bank to aid highway administrators and engineers in the process of decision making for preparing of road investment programme and determining the road network maintenance strategies. HDM-4 essentially models the interaction between the traffic volume, environment and pavement composition to predict the different kinds of distress that develop in pavements over time. Since distress is caused due to different conditions and progresses at different rates, therefore it is necessary to calibrate the HDM-4 model as per the local conditions. The aim of the study is to calibrate the HDM-4 pavement deterioration model in terms of rutting and roughness for the urban road network of Patiala (Punjab, India). In our study, we select 15 road sections and group them based on varying traffic and pavement age. The pavement condition data, which was measured starting from 2012 to the end of 2014, is fed as the input to the HDM-4 distress models. The calibration process is performed using statistical analysis between the observed and predicted value of the distress by keeping minimum Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and maximum R-squared(R2 ). The determined calibration factors are validated and further used for developing pavement deterioration models which prove to be helpful in building a Pavement Maintenance and Management system for Patiala.

This study aims to calibrate an HDM-4 model to predict pavement deterioration due to structural cracking and ravelling in a selected road section in Patiala (Punjab, India). The steps involved in calibration include modelling the past patterns of pavement deterioration and comparing them with the present-day measurement in order to make adjustments to the model. Data from 15 selected road sections of Patiala was collected for three successive years, starting from the year 2012 to the end of the year 2014, to create the model. Root Mean Square error and Coefficient of Determination were used for evaluating the deviation between the observed and calculated values of pavement deterioration parameters. The calibrated values were further validated, and it was deduced that the HDM-4 models predict the pavement distress with high accuracy and can be further used for developing effective management and maintenance strategies for the Indian urban road network

2017 - Macedonia - Calibration of HDM PDWE with Matlab
 169 Downloads
 497.56 KB
 25-06-2019

Paper on validation of the HDM crack initiation, progression, rutting and roughness models for Macedonia.

2015 - India - HDM4 Level 1 Calibration
 729 Downloads
 605.23 KB
 25-06-2019

This paper presents a case study where a level 1 calibration has been carried out for a State Highway in Uttar Pradesh, India. The climatic condition of the site is under humid, hot and high monthly precipitation throughout the year. Two methods have been proposed to find out the calibration factors. The calibration factors namely roughness age environment, crack initiation and crack propagation are found to be 0.650, 0.970 and 1.030 respectively for the case study using method 1 calibration method and 0.650, 0.864 and 1.157 respectively using method 2 calibration. Economic analysis has been carried out taking default calibration factors and level 1 calibration factors and NPV (net present value) and IRR (internal rate of return) were found Rs. (million) 368.1 (26.5 %) and 422.4 (27.9 %) respectively. Level 1 Calibration involved desk study and many default values have been adopted but the major factors like roughness age environment, crack initiation and crack propagation are important to simulate local condition. A well calibrated model for this local condition would reduce the possibility of future funding shortages. Level 1 calibration may be carried out easily based on few secondary data within few weeks and useful for economic analysis, prioritization and budgeting for maintenance of the road network.

The integration of material-science based performance models obtained from laboratory performance testing and modelling into life-cycle-assessment of road pavements is a future oriented approach for the improvement of  performance prediction. This shall significantly improve the selection processes for maintenance strategies within pavement management as well as during the design of new pavements. Maintenance options can be selected based on material behaviour and improved prognosis of long-term performance of the pavement structure. Within the ERA-NET ROAD II project InteMat4PMS – ‘Integration of Material-science based performance models into life-cycle-analysis processed in the frame of Pavement Management Systems’ – this
approach was developed and tested in practice on two test sections in Germany. The output of this project is presented in this paper.

Deterioration forecasting modeling is an essential element for an efficient pavement management system. The HDM-4 (Highway Development & Management-4) model developed by the World Bank is widely distributed to more than 100 countries around the world. However, many users often point out problems related to calibration limitations, and question the reliability of their results due to the extremely large number of variables, and difficulty in the calibration procedure of deterioration  models in the HDM-4. The current calibration method based on the Network-based approach which was introduced by the HDM-4 developer and has several limitations in describing the precise deterioration progress, and practical application. In fact, many HDM-4 users often give up implementation due to these reasons. To mitigate these problems, this paper suggests an improved calibration method for the HDM-4 deterioration models relevant to the deterioration speed and shape of the curve. The benefits are not limited to only high precision calibration, but also easy application by minimum data, and covering problems on incomplete pavement inventory data which are considered the most serious problems in the application of the HDM-4. The validity of the suggested methods was empirically shown through experience with the national highways in Korea. This paper could be a good reference for the implementation of the current HDM-4 model, as well as its future improvement.

2013 - India - HDM-4 Calibration Software
 1689 Downloads
 458.18 KB
 25-06-2019

The Highway Development and a Management System (HDM-4) developed by World Bank is a powerful pavement management software tool capable of performing technical and economic appraisals of road projects, investing road investment programs and analyzing road network preservation strategies. Its effectiveness is dependent on the proper calibration of its predictive models to local conditions. The use of appropriate calibration factors in HDM-4 pavement deterioration models will facilitate more reliable and rational prediction of pavement deterioration for the road network under considerations. This in turn will help in better assessment of the maintenance and rehabilitation requirements of pavements and improved pavement management system. In the present study, computer programs in ‘Visual C’ language have been developed for calibration of pavement deterioration progression models stipulated in HDM-4 tool such as cracking, ravelling, edge break and pothole for surface treatments with unbound base types of pavement composition used for Low Volume Roads (LVR) in India.

2013 - China Taiwan - HDM Calibration New!
 325.54 KB
 18-05-2020

Paper describing calibrating HDM-4 for China Taiwan.

One of the key challenges for a road concessionary is to be able to predict its roadway network´s pavement performance with high accuracy, which, in turn, has a significant impact on the pavement management actions to be taken during the concession period. An impediment to a more common use of models to predict a pavement’s performance in Brazil is lack of detailed historical information for calibrating performance models to local conditions. In the case of a concessionary, however, extensive detailed information regarding their roadway network is available. This study was conducted to calibrate pavement performance models in Highway Development and Management Model for the portion of Highway SP-280 under the administration of the concessionary Companhia de Concessões Rodoviárias (CCR) SPVias based on its historical data and to predict future pavement performance based on the calibrated models. Models were calibrated for an asphalt made with rubber modified bitumen and a cape seal and their roughness and cracking parameters progressed with time.

This is a paper on adapting the HDM-4 rut depth model to enable improved predictions of the impact of climate change on pavement deterioration.

I have reservations on including this paper at the site because the authors make a fundamental mistake with regard to HDM-4 and its modelling approach. When we developed the pavement deterioration models for HDM-4 we tried to balance the ability to predict pavement deterioration with the tractability of applying the models. If one increases the number of variables in a model it will always result in improved predictions. HDM-4 contains the right balance.

The approach here is not viable for any network type applications since not only is it impossible to get data on asphalt softening point and the voids in mix, but even if you were looking at a discrete section of road the variability of these variables would be significant within the section.

So caveat emptor with the paper!

2011 - Scandinavia - Pavement Modelling
 1101 Downloads
 12.46 MB
 25-06-2019

Series of reports from the NordFu project which developed project and network level models, including calibrating HDM-4 to cold climates.

2011 - Nigeria - Predicting Pothole Progression
 1233 Downloads
 666.66 KB
 25-06-2019

In this paper, a model was developed for the pothole in the flexible pavement with respect to the increase in the cumulative traffic axle load in order to predict quantities and estimate cost of repairs in a pavement stabilization program. The progression, in the area of the pothole at two locations in the semi urban portion of the Ajasse po – Ilorin intercity road in Nigeria and the corresponding traffic were monitored continuously for a period of eight weeks. The statistical regression analysis of the percentage increase in the area against the cumulative traffic axles was performed with the ‘Liness Microsoft Excel’ software. The model characteristics (coefficient and the constants) are 0.001 – 0.0015 m2/ standard axle and 11.85 – 12.68 m2 respectively at R - squared value of 0.98. The application of the model for the preparation of economically justifiable road rehabilitation and maintenance program was demonstrated in the paper.

2008 - Australia - HDM-4 RDWE Calibration
 565 Downloads
 624.27 KB
 25-06-2019

This report documents the calibration of HDM-4 RD models for sealed granular and asphalt
pavements based on SRA historical deterioration data. SRAs supplied historical roughness and
rutting deterioration data and some supplied cracking deterioration data and maintenance history.
HDM-4 RD models were calibrated to suit conditions in Victoria, Tasmania, South Australia,
Queensland and New Zealand. Rutting and roughness RD models were calibrated for all these
SRAs, except Queensland. Cracking RD models were calibrated for South Australia due to the
reasonable quality of its cracking data. Cracking data from Victoria, Tasmania and New Zealand
were either of inadequate quality or too insignificant, in terms of extent of cracking, to be
considered in the analysis, hence cracking models were not calibrated for the data from these
authorities.

Report describing the calibration of PDWE models based on NZ calibration site data.
Annexes to report describing the calibration of PDWE models based on NZ calibration site data.

Report describing comparision of in-situ pavement deterioration from LTPP sites with the CAPTIF test track. The annex to the report can be downloaded here.

The aim of this research, carried out in 2005, was primarily to test the current pavement deterioration models adopted in the New Zealand system. Most of these models were adopted from HDM-III and HDM-4, but some locally developed models were also tested.

TRB Conference paper presenting results of calibrating HDM fuel model to Canada and Chile
How the HDM-4 pavement deterioration model was calibrated to Chile (in Spanish)

2003 - Japan - Calibration of HDM-4 Rutting Models to Japan
 1566 Downloads
 212.14 KB
 25-06-2019

Results of a study to calibrate the HDM-4 rut depth model to Japan
Cambodia HDM-4 training course. 9/10.

2003 - HDM Road User Effects Software - Users Guide
 1154 Downloads
 1.68 MB
 25-06-2019

HDM-RUE was developed to predict vehicle operating costs for economic analysis. It prepares tables of vehicle operating costs and contains many features not available in the HDM-4 software. The program was originally developed during the writing of the book 'Modelling Road User and Environmental Effects in HDM-4' but is now marketed commercially by HIMS Ltd. who purchased the IP.

2003 - HDM Road User Effects Software - Software
 1195 Downloads
 13.57 MB
 25-06-2019

HDM-RUE was developed to predict vehicle operating costs for economic analysis. It prepares tables of vehicle operating costs and contains many features not available in the HDM-4 software. The program was originally developed during the writing of the book 'Modelling Road User and Environmental Effects in HDM-4' but is now marketed commercially by HIMS Ltd. who purchased the IP.

2003 - HDM Road User Effects Software - Brochure
 1217 Downloads
 60.55 KB
 25-06-2019

HDM-RUE was developed to predict vehicle operating costs for economic analysis. It prepares tables of vehicle operating costs and contains many features not available in the HDM-4 software. The program was originally developed during the writing of the book 'Modelling Road User and Environmental Effects in HDM-4' but is now marketed commercially by HIMS Ltd. who purchased the IP.
Paper presented to PIARC on Japanese RUE calibration

2003 - Chile - Calibration of HDM Surface Treatment Models
 1412 Downloads
 795.04 KB
 25-06-2019

Calibration of HDM-4's pavement deterioration model to Chile.
How the HDM-4 pavement deterioration model was calibrated to South Africa

2002 - Lithuania - Pavement Deterioration Calibration
 2078 Downloads
 562.16 KB
 25-06-2019

Calibration of HDM-4's pavement deterioration model to Lithuania.

2001 - Thailand - Summary of Speed Model Calibration
 1284 Downloads
 225.3 KB
 25-06-2019

Paper summarising the results of the speed model calibration work

2001 - Samoa - Road User Effects Model Calibration
 1164 Downloads
 150.4 KB
 25-06-2019

Report describing calibration and basic data collection for HDM-4 RUE model in Samoa.
Report describing how the HDM PDWE model was implemented in New Zealand for pavement management.
The NZVOC Model is used by Transfund New Zealand to prepare tables of vehicle operating costs for their Project Evaluation Manual. Two projects were conducted to update the costs and develop a new version of the NZVOC Model, one in 1999 and a second in 2001-2003. The NZVOC model contains enhanced VOC relationships and formed the basis for the HDM-4 RUE model.
The NZVOC Model is used by Transfund New Zealand to prepare tables of vehicle operating costs for their Project Evaluation Manual. Two projects were conducted to update the costs and develop a new version of the NZVOC Model, one in 1999 and a second in 2001-2003. The NZVOC model contains enhanced VOC relationships and formed the basis for the HDM-4 RUE model.
The NZVOC Model is used by Transfund New Zealand to prepare tables of vehicle operating costs for their Project Evaluation Manual. Two projects were conducted to update the costs and develop a new version of the NZVOC Model, one in 1999 and a second in 2001-2003. The NZVOC model contains enhanced VOC relationships and formed the basis for the HDM-4 RUE model.
The NZVOC Model is used by Transfund New Zealand to prepare tables of vehicle operating costs for their Project Evaluation Manual. Two projects were conducted to update the costs and develop a new version of the NZVOC Model, one in 1999 and a second in 2001-2003. The NZVOC model contains enhanced VOC relationships and formed the basis for the HDM-4 RUE model.
Results of pavement performance study in Indonesia and suitability of modelling with HDM-4 approach

2001 - HDM-4 Calibration Issues
 858 Downloads
 871 KB
 25-06-2019

Presentation to the 2001 PMS Conference on how to calibrate HDM-4.

2001 - Estonia - Short Calibration Guide
 1679 Downloads
 871.37 KB
 25-06-2019

Simplified HDM-4 calibration guide.

2001 - Eastern Europe - Calibration of HDM-4
 1367 Downloads
 1.89 MB
 25-06-2019

Article on PIARC magazine on the calibration of HDM-4 to Eastern Europe.

2000 - Tonga - Road Maintenance Project - HDM-4 Calibration
 1077 Downloads
 513.9 KB
 25-06-2019

Tonga road maintenance project. The project calibrated HDM-4 to Tonga and used it to investigate maintenance funding requirements.

2000 - Tonga - Calibrating HDM Road User Effects Model
 1095 Downloads
 513.9 KB
 25-06-2019

Calibration of HDM-4 RUE model for Tonga Road Maintenance project

2000 - Speed - Calibration of HDM Speed Model to India
 732 Downloads
 250.99 KB
 25-06-2019

Calibration of HDM-4 speed model to India

2000 - Guidelines on Calibration and Adaptation of HDM-4
 2526 Downloads
 1.66 MB
 25-06-2019

Authored by Chris Bennett and Bill Paterson, the HDM-4 Series Volume 5 describes how to calibrate HDM-4. The report addresses a range of issues from Information Quality through calibrating pavement deterioration and road user effects.

2000
 825 Downloads
 436.15 KB
 25-06-2019

Presentation on how HDM-4 calibration and validation is done.

2000
 818 Downloads
 387.5 KB
 25-06-2019

Presentation on how to calibrate HDM. Accompanies a paper by the same name for the 1st European PMS Conference.

1999 - Thailand - Software for Calculating Used Power
 711 Downloads
 276.27 KB
 25-06-2019

Software used to calculate the used power of vehicles. Important for predicting speeds.
Calibrating the free speed and congestion speed model to Thailand

1999 - Thailand - Calibration of HDM-4 Fuel Model
 1554 Downloads
 673.54 KB
 25-06-2019

Calibrating the free speed and congestion fuel models to Thailand

1999 - New Zealand - VOC for the Project Evaluation Manual
 1160 Downloads
 223.42 KB
 25-06-2019

Report describing calibration and application of RUE models for New Zealand

1999 - New Zealand - Treatments, Triggers and Resets
 1175 Downloads
 173.65 KB
 25-06-2019

Maintenance treatments, triggers and the effect of maintenance in the New Zealand HDM modelling.
ARRB calibration of HDM-4's surface dressing model to Australia.

1998 - India - Calibration of HDM-4 Road User Effects Model
 1288 Downloads
 603.97 KB
 25-06-2019

HDM-4 RUE Model calibration done as part of the Gujarat State Highway Project
ARRB initial calibration of HDM-4's surface dressing model to Australia.
HDM-4 RUE Model calibration done as part of the Thailand Central Database Project

1997 - India - Gujarat State Highways Project Summary
 1274 Downloads
 135.73 KB
 25-06-2019

Summary of project which used HDM to prioritize road investments for Gujara state
South African manual for visual pavement condition assessments.

1996
 745 Downloads
 723 KB
 25-06-2019

Presentation describing how HDM-4 is calibrated.

1995 - International - Review of Experience With HDM-III
 1091 Downloads
 1.12 MB
 25-06-2019

A review of how HDM-III was used in studies in different countries.

1995 - General - Review of Experience Using HDM-III
 1081 Downloads
 1.12 MB
 25-06-2019

A review of how HDM-III was used in studies in different countries

Low Volume Roads Conference. Application of HDM-III

Chris Bennett's PhD dissertation on developing a model for predicting speeds on two-lane highways in New Zealand

1994 - Lesotho - HDM Road User Effect Calibration
 598 Downloads
 352.36 KB
 25-06-2019

Calibration of the HDM-4 road user effects model to Lesotho.

1994 - India - HDM VOC and PDWE Calibration
 1233 Downloads
 166.6 KB
 25-06-2019

A report on establishing VOC and pavement deterioration relationships for India. Contains a detailed review of the India VOC and PDWE research and how this work was used to establish models for use in the dTIMS PMS application.

1994 - India - HDM VOC and PDWE Calibration
 1102 Downloads
 166.6 KB
 21-03-2018

A report on establishing VOC and pavement deterioration relationships for India. Contains a detailed review of the India VOC and PDWE research and how this work was used to establish models for use in the dTIMS PMS application.

1993 - Guidelines on Applying and Calibrating HDM-III
 1166 Downloads
 878.09 KB
 25-06-2019

Report describing calibration and application of HDM-III

1992 - Thailand - HDM-III Approach
 962 Downloads
 8.91 KB
 21-03-2018

Short note on modified version of HDM-III for Thailand

How HDM-III was modified and used for a study in Myanmar. Covers VOC and PDWE calibration as well as roughness measurements and application of HDM

1991 - Nepal - HDM VOC and PDWE Calibration
 1068 Downloads
 183.65 KB
 25-06-2019

Calibration and application of HDM-III for a feasibility study in Nepal.
How HDM-III was modified and calibrated to Myanmar for the Comprehensive Transport Study.

How HDM-III was modified and calibrated to Myanmar for the Comprehensive Transport Study.

1989 - NZ - New Zealand Vehicle Operating Costs Model
 60 Downloads
 58.76 MB
 24-07-2019

Road Research Unit Bulletin 82. This is the first NZVOC Model which was used to generate the vehicle operating costs for the Project Evaluation Manual.

Chris Bennett',s MEng dissertation on developing a model for predicting vehicle operating costs.