2011 - Nigeria - Predicting Pothole Progression

In this paper, a model was developed for the pothole in the flexible pavement with respect to the increase in the cumulative traffic axle load in order to predict quantities and estimate cost of repairs in a pavement stabilization program. The progression, in the area of the pothole at two locations in the semi urban portion of the Ajasse po – Ilorin intercity road in Nigeria and the corresponding traffic were monitored continuously for a period of eight weeks. The statistical regression analysis of the percentage increase in the area against the cumulative traffic axles was performed with the ‘Liness Microsoft Excel’ software. The model characteristics (coefficient and the constants) are 0.001 – 0.0015 m2/ standard axle and 11.85 – 12.68 m2 respectively at R - squared value of 0.98. The application of the model for the preparation of economically justifiable road rehabilitation and maintenance program was demonstrated in the paper.