2015 - Australia - Probabilistic Pavement Deterioration Modelling Pilot

This report documents research to further develop probabilistic modelling work undertaken in 2012 and demonstrate the impact the variations in predictions of the main dependent variable, roughness, has on road agency costs (RAC) and vehicle operating costs (VOC) in a pavement life-cycle costing analysis.

This phase of work used a pilot application of a three road network with each road having different levels of traffic and pavement performance outcomes. The pilot study showed that the RAC estimates are highly sensitive to the percentile roughness estimates compared to the VOC estimates because during the pavement life-cycle costing analysis the roughness levels are contained to within 4 IRI by the intervention of rehabilitation.