2011 - UK - Assessment of Impact of Climate Change on Road Maintenance

This is a paper on adapting the HDM-4 rut depth model to enable improved predictions of the impact of climate change on pavement deterioration.

I have reservations on including this paper at the site because the authors make a fundamental mistake with regard to HDM-4 and its modelling approach. When we developed the pavement deterioration models for HDM-4 we tried to balance the ability to predict pavement deterioration with the tractability of applying the models. If one increases the number of variables in a model it will always result in improved predictions. HDM-4 contains the right balance.

The approach here is not viable for any network type applications since not only is it impossible to get data on asphalt softening point and the voids in mix, but even if you were looking at a discrete section of road the variability of these variables would be significant within the section.

So caveat emptor with the paper!