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Welcome to Chris Bennett's and Lis Pedersen's web site. If you are looking for information Chris' current work on affordable housing, please visit www.mygbhousing.info. The video below tells the background to Chris' project.

 

2016 - China - Does infrastructure investment lead to economic growth or economic fragility? Evidence from China

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2016 - China - Does infrastructure investment lead to economic growth or economic fragility? Evidence from China

China’s three-decade infrastructure investment boom shows few signs of abating. Is China’s economic growth a consequence of its purposeful investment? Is China a prodigy in delivering infrastructure from which rich democracies could learn? The prevalent view in economics literature and policies derived from it is that a high level of infrastructure investment is a precursor to economic growth. China is especially held up as a model to emulate. Politicians in rich democracies display awe and envy of the scale of infrastructure Chinese leaders are able to build. Based on the largest dataset of its kind, this paper punctures the twin myths that (i) infrastructure creates economic value, and that (ii) China has a distinct advantage in its delivery. Far from being an engine of economic growth, the typical infrastructure investment fails to deliver a positive risk-adjusted return. Moreover, China’s track record in delivering infrastructure is no better than that of rich democracies. Investing in unproductive projects results initially in a boom, as long as construction is ongoing, followed by a bust, when forecasted benefits fail to materialize and projects therefore become a drag on the economy. Where investments are debt-financed, overinvesting in unproductive projects results in the build-up of debt, monetary expansion, instability in financial markets, and economic fragility, exactly as we see in China today. We conclude that poorly managed infrastructure investments are a main explanation of surfacing economic and financial problems in China. We predict that, unless China shifts to a lower level of higher-quality infrastructure investments, the country is headed for an infrastructure-led national financial and economic crisis, which is likely also to be a crisis for the international economy. China’s infrastructure investment model is not one to follow for other countries but one to avoid.

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Created Date: 25-06-2019
Last Updated Date: 28-03-2018

Adventures

Chris in the NCT Race 

Chris has an adventurous spirit which generally involves cycling, running, or just being out there having a good time. Read his 'Race Reports' below. This is a link to his SPOT GPS tracker. If you are interested in his 'geeky' sport technical blog it is at www.tri-duffer.com. He also has stories of his life as 'An Overtravelled Engineer Working for the World Bank' at World Bank Traveller.

 

Race Reports

Technical

Document Library

 

  • Chris' published papers and reports are here.
  • His Technical Library  has a range of reports 
  • Golden Bay community projects are here.
  • The history of the ROMDAS company is here.
  • The 'Road to Good Health' HIV/AIDs Toolkit is here.

 

Technical Library

Chris and Lis

Chris and Lis

We are Lis Pedersen and Chris Bennett. We’ve been married over 30 years and each found our way to New Zealand in the early 1980s from Denmark and Canada respectively. Golden Bay has been our happy place for almost 20 years and we are now based in Pohara just above the beach, with our two cats Coco and Max. 

 

 

 

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