2012 – ADB – Quantitative Approaches to Risk Screening Roads for Climate Change Risks

This research addresses the need for a more comprehensive approach to identifying roads at risk from climate change. Although subjective assessments can be useful, their inability to be conclusively tested makes it difficult to compare and rank their results across projects. In recognition of this, this paper develops techniques to provide simple, objective and transparent methodologies for identifying the point at which climate change is relevant for a road project’s design. Factors identified as being the most likely to impact roads are sea-level rise, deterioration from changes in average temperate and rainfall and changes in peak and average rainfall which result in inundation. Where potential risk factors are identified, a more detailed assessment of the risks is recommended.